| Project Structure | WP1: Emissions | WP2: Observations | WP3: Sensitivity Studies | WP4: Reanalysis Simulations | WP5: Policy and Impacts |
RETRO Work Package 5: Policy Assessment and Implications
After an initial review of past European policy measures to curb regional air pollution (see report D5-5), a few key scenarios were developed based on the TNO Emission Assessment Model (TEAM).
The scenarios investigated potential changes in the power generation sector ("What would have happened if coal-fired power plants had been phased out after 1970?") and in the traffic sector ("How would air pollutant emissions have evolved if no catalysts had been introduced?" and "How would emissions have changed if all OECD countries were adhering to the EURO5 emission standard?"). The RETRO global atmospheric chemistry models were then used to estimate the implications of these emission changes on tropospheric ozone and its precursors in a multi-model ensemble approach. Simulations were run for the year 2000 which marks the end-point of the emission sceanrios and maximizes the effect. Further details on the scenario definition and on the model results can be found in report D5-5.
 Temporal evolution of NOx emissions in OECD countries according to the RETRO traffic scenarios (worst case=no catalysts, best case=EURO5 standard fully introduced, base case=real evolution). (click to enlarge figure) |
 Changes in summertime boundary layer NOx concentrations (in percent) in the "no catalysts" scenario relative to the base case reanalysis run. Results from the Oslo CTM2 model (click to enlarge figure) |
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Analysis of past and present policy response to trends in European air pollution (Deliverable 5-5, pdf, 79 pages, 17.6 MB) |